Myth of Market Size
One of the most frustrating questions to be asked if you’re an entrepreneur is “what is your market size”? Investors, recruits, and even your friends ask this question when you’re starting a new business. As a matter of practice, it is very difficult to know your market size, even in an established market where you’re disrupting a known purchase.
The reason is it is hard to know exactly how many people or companies have the exact problem you can solve. In Disruption Theory parlance, you don’t exactly know how many people have the job-to-be-done that you can fulfill.
Many times, folks will take a big number like the population of people age 50 to 60 in the United States and say that 10% of them are the market. But the assumption tied up in that 10% is that those people have the problem you can solve, they actually want to pay for a solution, and that you can solve it better than a competitor. That is a very hard thing to know until you have enough sales data to look retrospectively at a market.
This leads to another point which my co-Founder Jonathan Spier has so wisely put on many occasions. The only way to start a business is, well, to start it. To me, this means you can’t have all the info you’d like to have, so you have to start with what you’ve got. If you don’t, someone else may. Same thing with investors. Each type of investor needs to have a certain minimum level of information to know whether they want to invest. When selecting an investor, target investors whose questions you are ready to answer. Same with recruiting employees for an early-stage business.
The reason is it is hard to know exactly how many people or companies have the exact problem you can solve. In Disruption Theory parlance, you don’t exactly know how many people have the job-to-be-done that you can fulfill.
Many times, folks will take a big number like the population of people age 50 to 60 in the United States and say that 10% of them are the market. But the assumption tied up in that 10% is that those people have the problem you can solve, they actually want to pay for a solution, and that you can solve it better than a competitor. That is a very hard thing to know until you have enough sales data to look retrospectively at a market.
This leads to another point which my co-Founder Jonathan Spier has so wisely put on many occasions. The only way to start a business is, well, to start it. To me, this means you can’t have all the info you’d like to have, so you have to start with what you’ve got. If you don’t, someone else may. Same thing with investors. Each type of investor needs to have a certain minimum level of information to know whether they want to invest. When selecting an investor, target investors whose questions you are ready to answer. Same with recruiting employees for an early-stage business.
posted by Michael Osofsky at
11:35 AM
2 Comments:
2019.11.22台北知名酒店經紀公司數據統計22日最新資料，2019年酒店上班女性人數占比逾76%，八大行業提供全國逾7成8的酒店打工就業機會，大學生酒店兼差就業人數達865萬人，顯見八大行業酒店小姐產業環境快速變遷之上，目前上班族酒店兼職的酒店小姐對於台灣經濟依舊有著舉足輕重的地位，抱有渴望未來發展不忘白天的本職學能。八大行業龐大利益來源於制服店、便服店、禮服店、鋼琴酒吧、日式酒店、飯局、傳播等，財金專家指出每年獲利為在新台幣5億以上，其他行業則指前一年營業額1億元以下。
2020.04.15酒店工作、舞廳停業，大量的酒店上班小姐瞬間失業，沒了八大行業該何去何從？我們也觀察到有「傳播經紀公司」趁機在網路上大舉酒店打工徵才，號召失業的陪酒小姐加入，誠徵「酒店PT」轉戰KTV、釣蝦場、熱炒店、居酒屋甚至是電影院，陪客人釣蝦唱歌看電影，提供桌邊服務也就是俗稱的「酒店上班跑單幫」，工作時間雖然自由但收入不穩定，更由於這些服務公主都是陪著客人進出公共場所，服務客群來來去去，會不會成為另一種防疫破口？值得觀察。八大行業網路PO影片，北中南號召年輕妹妹加入成為旗下小姐，舞廳、酒店配合防疫暫時停業，經紀公司卻在此時大喇喇臉書挖角找人。PO文配合政府政策，全國酒店舞廳暫時歇業，釣蝦場、自助KTV缺服務公主，號召暫時缺工作的小姐們，歡迎您的加入，最後一行「歡迎同行妹妹一起加入，渡過這次難關」。經紀公司口中說的「服務公主」到底做些什麼？說穿了就是得陪釣蝦場客人聊天、釣蝦，以及在附設包廂內唱歌、倒酒，價碼以時薪計算，只是每次出場得隨客人喜好，不見得接得了單。八大行業人士：「要看幾個小姐他們叫過來，然後看我們要不要讓他們挑選，不要，再換一批。」傳播公司拉攏酒店小姐轉換跑道，工作項目也很雜，像是釣蝦場陪釣、KTV陪唱、熱炒店、居酒屋幫倒酒、電影院陪看電影、提供桌邊服務又稱為「跑單幫」。八大行業人士：「有門路或是朋友有在跑這個，這叫跑單幫，有的話就會去跑。」酒店、舞廳小姐、女陪侍跟經紀公司旗下的傳播小姐兩者大不同，酒店小姐需要排班，工作穩定，客源的社經地位較高；反觀傳播小姐比較像是小蜜蜂，要到處尋找酒客，經紀公司要負責接送上下班確保安全。酒店被迫暫時關門，北中南大量酒小姐、舞小姐沒了工作，會不會轉換跑道成為另一種防疫缺口？值得關注。
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